Security Briefing – 15 April 2009

The stand-off in Bangkok between thousands of anti-government protestors and military forces ended on 14 April after protest leaders called off the demonstration amid fears of a military crackdown.

Violent clashes between red-shirted United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) supporters and security forces took place near the Victory Monument north-east of the city centre on 13 April, leaving two dead and more than 120 injured. It has been reported that the fatalities occurred in clashes that did not involve security forces.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency in Bangkok and the surrounding areas on 12 April. The state of emergency, which has no set time frame, allows the government to restrict gatherings of more than five people, prohibit or block communications, and detain suspects for up to 30 days without charge. Arrest warrants have been issued for 14 of the protest leaders, including former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Protest Locations

Tens of thousands of protestors had surrounded Government House in the centre of Bangkok from 26 March to 14 April in an effort to bring down the coalition government. The Ministry of Interior was stormed by protestors on 12 April while demonstrations took place at Parliament and the Central World/Siam Paragon Shopping Malls. The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) conference, scheduled for 11 to 13 April, had to be cancelled following large-scale protests and disruptions in Pattaya, 100 km south-east of the capital. A state of emergency was declared temporarily in the seaside resort on 11 April after protestors forcibly entered a conference venue.

International Operations Group - Analysis

Thailand has experienced regular protests during the last three years. People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) supporters caused a political crisis in the country with a series of demonstrations late in 2008. The political situation currently remains very uncertain and tensions are high. There is a strong likelihood that further demonstrations will occur in the near future. UDD leaders have warned that major protests will take place in 50 cities across Thailand during the next few days.

Due to the potential for a heavy-handed response by the military, there remains a high chance that such protests will lead to violence.

International Operations Group - Advice for Personnel

Due to the current high levels of civil unrest and the potential for the situation to escalate again, personnel are advised to avoid non-essential travel to Bangkok and the surrounding provinces of Nonthaburi, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Pathom, Ayudhaya and Pathumthani.

Personnel currently in Bangkok should stay indoors where possible when protests occur. Local media should be monitored for updates and personnel are advised to avoid concentrations of security forces and regular demonstration sites (including Government House, the parliament buildings, the police headquarters and the Ministry of the Interior). Although foreign personnel are not generally targeted during protests in Thailand, personnel should exercise extra vigilance and keep away from all large political gatherings and protests in case they do escalate to violence. UDD demonstrations will be highly visible as many supporters will more than likely be wearing red.

International Operations Group - Assistance

International Operations Group provides intelligence and crisis management support for corporate and individual clients across the globe. We are able to provide support and advice to organisations with personnel and interests in Thailand and other areas where critical incidents occur.

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For more information on our fee-based intelligence updates or bespoke reporting, please email Rob Stevenson - rob [at] interopsgroup [dot] com. Rob can also be telephoned on +61 [0] 420 244 909.